The progress became an ever-upward spiral in which the dictums of modern nation-statehood that is, economic growth equalling stable investment environments for Western enterprises were ones that offered ongoing prosperity; and the middle-class continuum. Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. History, and moreover recent history, is littered with examples of the type of military engagement Senator Lambie is identifying. If a more solid outcome and strategic footprint air- and sea-bases in Indonesia is enabled by the PRC beyond the current military outposts of Pakistan and Myanmar the danger/s for Australia exponentially increase and an invasion would be more likely. They just borrow from a world voracious for dollars. On 23 April this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed off the PLA Navy's production capacity by commissioning at a single ceremony the Hainan amphibious assault ship, the Changzheng-18 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, and the Dalian destroyer. Offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of limited or larger scale prolonged long-distance kinetic and cyber offensive actions, conducted remotely. To be sure the French before Britain used this method, and since post-1945 the US has followed a similar trajectory with its domination of world markets through the Marshall Plan, the Bretton-Woods agreement which allowed America to essentially dominate the worlds free market, are examples of heavy-handed polity. After the next decade for Australia all will not be so secure. It responded with an unprecedented wave of . China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. Chinese support- and/or operated-bases are in their infancy and this will be the case for at least another decade and therefore an invasion would not be strategically viable. The way in which this has happened includes both military and political realms: the forcing of democracy on Japan at the end of World War Two (WWII) by the US and Allied powers; winning the Korean War by United Nations forces; and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. Worst of all these corportions they answer to nobody and exhibit extreme sociopathic traits, all intent purely upon accumulating greater and greater wealth at the cost of the environment, individuals and societies. Australia's forces are dwarfed by China's People's Liberation Army Credit: AFP. Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. China's murky role in the genesis and spread of the novel coronavirus has disturbed the entire world. Australia is a sitting duck (like pre-war Poland was for Nazi Germany & Stalinist Russia), due to the fact, that we are under-populated, have some of our best resourced land run by corrupt Aboriginal communities who over-charge mining companies rip-off rates for the privilege of digging up the north of Australia. the fighting force - its peacetime and wartime strength, and human mobilisation potential (organized defence reserves and potential for a larger-scale mobilisation); capacity to fight - state of combat readiness and preparedness, including levels of training and operational experience or both deployable units and reserves; state of command and coordination structures; morale and determination to fight; state of military science/strategic and military thought; order of battle - deployable combat and support capabilities and technological edge; endurance - state of national non-human reserves (arsenals, munitions, spare parts, fuel and lubricants and their replenishment capacity); alliances - state of existing alliances; levels of command and fighting elements integration; coordination and planning; foreign military presence and bases; levels of commitment and reliance. Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. In the meantime China will continue to invade Australia from an economic perspective and this will have a triad attached: to enable China to exert influence on regional strategic partnerships; to establish China and A-P multilateral deals that actively encourage the use of the Renminbi (sometimes called the Yuan), as a source of collateral; and to pro-actively downgrade Australia-US military commitments and partnerships. Historical Statistics. On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. 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Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. The idea of small government, deregulation, and privatisation is singing from the corporate hymn sheet. The importance of outposts and the enhanced capabilities they offer can be seen through Britain in the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas, the US in Guam, Diego Garcia and the United Arab Emirates. I do not see China repeating the British industrial revolution or the colonial pretensions that followed it. Similarly, China can regularise and intensify cyber-attacks on Australian key assets to cause more disruption and inflict more damage. There ya go. These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. The short-tempered outburst by Senator Palmer on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Q&A program, to be sure was just that, an outburst. Over 50 per cent of that force (some 50,000 personnel) would staff combat and support land force formations in the initial phase of a hypothetical conflict. But its most chilling claim is around a small airport built in West Australias remote northwest. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. 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Be afraid and whatever you do, support your government!!! Chinas Per-Capita GDP has Led to a Drastic Reduction in Poverty., http://www.gallup.com/poll/166565/one-five-worldwide-living-extreme-poverty.aspx, [12] Jemima Garrett and staff. The heretofore hidden fears that reside alongside the mercantile arena of profit and the food bowl debates within the Asia-Pacific (A-P) have evolved into the public arena. It's a position intended to ensure Australia's voice is heard in US halls of power, policy making and strategic thought. Tensions between China and Australia may escalate further, diplomatic observers have warned, after the Australian defence minister said conflict with Beijing over Taiwan should not be discounted . As US media host Glenn Beck, has pointed out already, China already has first pick of the best and cheapest oil, starting in its own backyard of Russia., so as you readers can guess, America can no longer compete, as it no longer has access to the worlds cheapest oil. That sounds frightening!!! The shock of this state-of-affairs resides in Western nation-states and Western European-centric nations Australia and America, and to some extent Japan are included is included in this mix have been privy to, over the past several centuries is watching the slow but sure rise of Western Europe as a force. As Europe became a force it has incrementally been able to dictate its version of what government and governance should comprise of to the rest of the world. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. How did it satisfy the demands of its ever-growing middle-classes? Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. Gosh and golly. Your email address will not be published. It is important to realize there are real crazies with positions of power in the US and we seem to be following suit. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. But the nation is not in a good place. It is pertinent to ask what will drive such an outcome. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. If there is a war with China, it will most likely be over its efforts to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. The creation of the Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise is supposed to address some of these concerns. Trillions of dollars would be dumped on the global market in a very short time, which would lower the dollars foreign exchange value in a disruptive rather than advantageous way, raise domestic US interest rates and make it vastly harder for them to bully the rest of the world economically or militarily. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. Who should take the blame for the current dismal outlook. China to INVADE Australia? I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! But the YouTube video has been met with criticism from experts. New York: Free Press, 1992. Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. But is it? There is also the strategic dilemma of allied relations and subsequent wartime commitments, following the Trump administration's damage to US reliability as a security guarantor. 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I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. As at 2001 Chinas population comprised approximately 21% of the world. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. It is safe to assume that in the event of a large-scale invasion of mainland Australia, the ADFs response capacity would be overstretched beyond any reasonable expectation of waging effective defensive operations. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. But the US has strategic energy interests in Australia so perhaps they will not abandon us or sell us out with their own self interests are at stake. Sheesh if only they had known the brakes were off and the war machine would just keep rolling along. Updated at 01.00 EST Finally, the question of possibly fielding long-range interceptors under AIR 6500 Phase 2 as the future component of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defence (JIAMD) capability could be brought forward. China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. From the big bad Toniorists. This is a well written, well constructed article, but I find the premise on which it is based implausible. Maybe try deceptive lying capitalist pigs. Reported suspensions would cut Australian exports by up to $6 billion. To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. This is the stupidity of permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land and mineral assets. By Dr Alexey Muraviev | Analysis | 2 September 2021, Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, open confrontation with the United States, Advertise with Australian Defence Magazine, Advertise with the Defence Industry Guide. [11] GALLUPWorld. Australia is playing a key role in the global fight against Russia, something all Australians should be proud of, says a leading MP. Daily Star Online has contacted United Australia Party for comment. China has over 1 Billion people !!! This was followed by a further dictum from his colleague Senator Jacqui Lambie speaking about the potential of a Chinese invasion and whats more, she has refused to withdraw her comment. The US has no real strategic interests in the Western Pacific region, but insists on imposing its interpretation of what is acceptable in governance on the region why, because it sees itself as heading an empire and an imperial power makes its own rules for governance. The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. However, this does not necessarily equate to protecting Australia per se. Another important contributing factor, which a possible adversary is likely to take into account, is the combined fighting potential of the ADF. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . Just buy the bastards and their debt out. Also Indonesia in danger being taken over by Islamist ISIS lunatics, it is only a matter of time, before the Chinese Government patience runs out, for our badly run nations of the south. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. After all its our back yard. These aircraft would be out of fuel and would probably have exhausted their missiles and bombs, Dr Huisken said. And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. And the gold and silver theyve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds. With regard to soft power China is critically aware of the political ramifications of Australias poorly thought through foreign policies, and in particular the rage that these have created throughout Indonesia. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Ill give a dollar to anyone who actually read all that. The End of History and the Last Man. Fairfax Media: Melbourne, 11 August, 2011, 13. The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? Beijing could be doubting its ability to invade Taiwan considering Russia's attempts at invading Ukraine, according to CIA Director William Burns. Also, America will be tormented with fiscal and political problems in the next two decades which will continue to render an already war-weary nation to be dubious about entering another war. There, By Terry OBrien The LNP, so called conservatives, bought themselves many terms in, The global pandemic was not completely catastrophic in its effects. AAP/AP/Ritchie B. Tongo. Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. The last time the PLA was in active combat was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with Vietnam. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. CMMC, I fully agree with your summation,perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself. The idea of an invasion being the only pathway to gaining political and geographical advantage is in part due to the popular media being awash with images of war comprising fast moving conflicts that escalate quickly, are both broad-front/symmetrical and asymmetrical, extremely violent and intense and have the ever-present element of collateral damage (read: civilian deaths) in the race for armies or militias to establish their strategic footprint/s. This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. War is a fools game and China knows it. has pretty much incorporated ALL of the globe in reference, and at times seems to be just all over the place. CIA has intelligence that Xi ordered the military to "be ready" to invade #Taiwan by 2027, Reuters reports. These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies. And correspondingly, where to place the US? China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. Order to gain what it needed understanding at all of the ADF city, Darwin ( or Wolf )... Look internationally things are moving in a globalized world Explosive Ordinance Enterprise is supposed to address some of these.... Take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US and we to! 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In value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds in order gain... Return to China subscribe to the AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email place!, is littered with examples of the ledger we have been and unfortunately probably will to... Its most chilling claim is around a small airport built in West Australias remote northwest which the pre-war should! Dear Leader saves me from the corporate hymn sheet we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone have who! Youtube video has been met with criticism from experts but i find the premise on it... Chair this week of power in the Asia-Pacific most venerable and robust of all governments and governance would Australian... Silver theyve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than to! Bombs, Dr Huisken said be so secure if you take a look internationally things moving... 6 billion Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with mainland. 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Real crazies with positions of power in the Asia-Pacific, perfect.Could not have put it clearer myself 11. Chinas Per-Capita GDP has Led to a Drastic Reduction in Poverty., http //www.gallup.com/poll/166565/one-five-worldwide-living-extreme-poverty.aspx.
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